Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Ascent Kuala Lumpur
decks
7
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
73
36-29-8
overall winrate
54.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.9%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
53.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1344
· median 1285
· range 1105–1619
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1184
Q3 1396
1730
43% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 19 | 10-8-1 | 55.3% | 54.3% | 41.5% | -3.3 |
| Water Genbu | 9.8% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 32.1% | -10.3 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 10 | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 67.9% | 58.4% | +3.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.2% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.5% | -2.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.6% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 45.5% | -2.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 38.5% | -7.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.1% | -9.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.7% | -8.4 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Diao Chan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
